Your solo mining odds on three chains, at today's difficulty.
Type your hashrate or add the rigs you run. Our nodes report each chain's difficulty with its block height and time, and each figure below starts from that reading.
Makers' stock hashrates. Your unit may run a little above or below its figure.
Add hardwareBitcoin difficulty 148,364,561,003,867 at block 973,748, read 22:29 UTC from our node.
- Chance within 1 year
- 1 in 16,827of at least one block
- Even odds by
- 11,664 yearshalf of rigs like yours find one sooner
- Average wait
- 16,827 yearsa long-run mean, never a due date
- Each block
- 1 in 885,029,080one Bitcoin block lands about every 10 minutes
- Nine in ten by
- 38,745 yearsand 99 in 100 by 77,491 years
Your chance over time
- Bitcoin, this rig
- Bitcoin Cash, if you point the rig there
The same rig, window by window
A row sets the window above. Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash both run SHA-256, so one rig can mine either.
| Window | Bitcoin | Bitcoin Cash |
|---|---|---|
| 1 in 147,504,847 | 1 in 512,920 | |
| 1 in 6,146,036 | 1 in 21,372 | |
| 1 in 878,006 | 1 in 3,054 | |
| 1 in 201,924 | 1 in 703 | |
| 1 in 16,827 | 1.7% | |
| 1 in 1,683 | 15.7% |
Bitcoin Cash's difficulty sits 288 times below Bitcoin's today, so its waits run 288 times shorter. A lower difficulty shortens the wait; a Bitcoin Cash block is still worth what Bitcoin Cash is worth.
If your rig finds a Bitcoin block, its coinbase pays 3.125 BTC plus the block's fees to your address.
Run Payout PreflightTry your own numbers
Another difficulty
Put in the difficulty you expect after a retarget, and the whole page recomputes with it.
Your best share
Your dashboard keeps your best share. Type it here to see how often your rig turns one up that hard.
Show the arithmetic
- Bitcoin difficulty 148,364,561,003,867 × 2³² = 637 sextillion hashes for one block, on average.
- 637 sextillion hashes ÷ 1.2 TH/s = an average wait of 16,827 years.
- Chance within 1 year = 1 − e^(−1 year ÷ average wait) = 1 in 16,827.
- Even odds = average wait × ln 2 = 11,664 years.
Two numbers go in: your hashrate and the network's difficulty. The pool you mine at changes neither.
Questions miners ask about these odds
- Can a pool improve these odds?
- No. The network sets one difficulty for everyone, so your rig has the same chance per hash at any pool, ours included. A pool decides what happens after a hit: whether the block reaches the network and whether the coinbase pays your address. Payout Preflight shows you that payment before you find anything.
- Should I trust the median or the average?
- Half of the rigs that match yours find a block before the median wait. The average lands later, because a few rigs wait far longer than the rest. Neither one is a date on a calendar: a block arrives when a hash falls under the target.
- I mined a year without a block. Am I due?
- No. Each hash is a new draw, so a year with no block leaves next year's odds where they began. Solo mining is a lottery with no memory of your misses.
- Why does Bitcoin Cash show a shorter wait for the same rig?
- Its difficulty is lower, so a block takes fewer hashes and comes sooner on average. Each block still pays in its own chain's coin, so a shorter wait says nothing about the size of the prize.
- How does Dogecoin fit in?
- Our Litecoin pool merge-mines Dogecoin: each Scrypt hash goes up against both chains' targets. The targets nest, since a hash under the harder one also sits under the easier one. That makes the chance of a block on either chain equal to the easier chain's chance, never the two added together.
- Where do these numbers come from?
- From our own Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Dogecoin nodes, through the pool's public API, refreshed each minute while this page is open. Each reading shows its block height and time, so you can check it against any block explorer.
Mine solo at these odds, paid to your own address.
Payout Preflight shows the coinbase your rig would be paid by before it finds anything. Connect has the address and port for your firmware.
Trust nothing. Check each reading against a block explorer.